Hertsmere (UK Parliament constituency)
Hertsmere | |
---|---|
County constituency for the House of Commons | |
![]() Boundaries since 2024 | |
![]() Boundary of Hertsmere in the East of England | |
County | Hertfordshire |
Electorate | 73,256 (2023)[1] |
Major settlements | Borehamwood, Potters Bar and Bushey |
Current constituency | |
Created | 1983 |
Member of Parliament | Oliver Dowden (Conservative) |
Seats | One |
Created from | South Hertfordshire and South West Hertfordshire[2] |
Hertsmere is a constituency[n 1] in Hertfordshire, England, represented in the House of Commons since 2015 by Sir Oliver Dowden of the Conservative Party, who is the former deputy prime minister.[n 2]
Constituency profile
[edit]Just beyond the northwestern boundary of Greater London and with fast railway links into the capital, Hertsmere is a Parliamentary constituency in the Home Counties. The constituency is in the London Commuter Belt, largely inside London's orbital motorway, the M25, and within the London green belt, in the South-West of Hertfordshire. Political consultancy Electoral Calculus classifies the constituency's population as broadly Conservative 'kind yuppies'.[3] Hertsmere has the third-highest Jewish population of any UK Parliamentary constituency.[4]
According to the census for England and Wales, the population of the Hertsmere local authority area (which presently corresponds to the area of the Parliamentary constituency) has increased by 7.8%, from around 100,000 in 2011 to 107,800 in 2021. This is higher than the overall increase for England (6.6%), where the population grew by nearly 3.5 million to 56,489,800, but slightly lower than the increase for the East of England region that Hertsmere belongs to (8.3%). The fastest growing age group in Hertsmere is the over-65s, which has increased since 2011 by 17.6%, close to the overall rate of growth for this age group in England (20.1%).[5]
Parts of the constituency are among the most prosperous in Britain but 2015 data from the English Multiple deprivation index for the Borough of Hertsmere shows widely varying levels of deprivation, with overall deprivation levels – on a scale from 1 (the most deprived) to 32,844 (the least deprived) – ranging from 3,049 for Borehamwood Cowley Hill, the most deprived area in Hertfordshire and in the 10% most deprived nationally, to 32,695 for Bushey Heath, in the 1% least deprived.[6]
The constituency of Hertsmere has returned a Conservative Member of Parliament at every general election since its creation and has been a safe seat almost throughout, with majorities ranging from 3,075 in 1997 (the election in which Labour won 418 Parliamentary seats, the largest number ever held by a single party) to 21,313 in 2019 (when the Conservative Party won 317 seats and a Parliamentary majority of 85). A close result for second place occurred in 2010, with only 661 votes separating the Labour Party and Liberal Democrat candidates.
In the history of the constituency the Liberal Democrat vote share has fallen substantially, from a quarter of the vote and second place ahead of Labour in 1983, to less than half that and third place in 2019. In 2015 the party fell to fourth place.
Boundaries and composition
[edit]1983–1997
[edit]- The Borough of Hertsmere; and
- The City of St Albans ward of London Colney.[7]
The new county constituency was formed largely from the bulk of the abolished constituency of South Hertfordshire. It also included the area comprising the former Urban District of Bushey, transferred from South West Hertfordshire.
1997–2024
[edit]- The Borough of Hertsmere.[8]
From 1997 to 2024 the constituency was coterminous with the borough of Hertsmere in southern Hertfordshire (before then it had also included the City of St Albans ward of London Colney, which was transferred to the St Albans constituency).
Hertsmere consists of the major towns and villages of Bushey, Radlett, Potters Bar and Borehamwood, elevated settlements above the headwaters of the River Colne which forms much of the northern border. Bushey borders Watford and the London Borough of Harrow to the west and south west, while Potters Bar borders Barnet and Broxbourne on the east. Borehamwood is just south-east of the centre, the largest town in the constituency — in the north and centre is Radlett, separated by two large villages and farms from St Albans to the north.
Following its review of parliamentary representation in Hertfordshire, the Boundary Commission recommended no changes to constituency boundaries for the 2010 general election. The seat contained these electoral wards:
- Aldenham East, Aldenham West, Borehamwood Brookmeadow, Borehamwood Cowley Hill, Borehamwood Hillside, Borehamwood Kenilworth, Bushey Heath, Bushey North, Bushey Park, Bushey St James, Elstree, Potters Bar Furzefield, Potters Bar Oakmere, Potters Bar Parkfield, Shenley.[9][10]
Current
[edit]In 2021 the Boundary Commission for England, as part of the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, published draft changes to constituency boundaries. On 8 November 2022, the final draft of the Boundary Commission's proposals was published, following consultation. The revised Hertsmere CC (County Constituency) was as proposed in the previous draft and became effective for the 2024 general election.[11][12] Although the electorate of the constituency was within 5% of the new 'electoral quota' of 73,393, the commission proposed that changes be made to enable neighbouring constituencies to remain within the electoral range. The borough ward of Bushey North, previously in the Hertsmere constituency, joined the Watford constituency and the Welwyn Hatfield borough ward of Northaw and Cuffley, previously in the Broxbourne constituency, joined Hertsmere.[13] The new Hertsmere constituency contains an electorate of approximately 73,256.[14]
Hertsmere consists of the major towns and villages of Bushey, Radlett, Potters Bar and Borehamwood, elevated settlements above the headwaters of the River Colne which forms much of the northern border. Bushey borders Watford and the London Borough of Harrow to the west and south west, while Potters Bar borders Barnet and Broxbourne on the east. Borehamwood is just south-east of the centre, the largest town in the constituency — in the north and centre is Radlett, separated by two large villages and farms from St Albans to the north.
Members of Parliament
[edit]This safe Conservative constituency was created in 1983 from the former seat of South Hertfordshire. Cecil Parkinson, who had entered Parliament in 1970 and had previously represented South Hertfordshire, was MP from the seat's creation until his retirement in 1992. He was a close ally of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and had run her successful 1983 election campaign.[15] Parkinson stepped down from government on the day of Thatcher's resignation as Conservative Party leader.[16]
James Clappison held the seat for five electoral terms, from 1992 until his decision to stand down from parliament at the 2015 general election.[17]
The seat was subsequently won by Oliver Dowden.[18]
Election | Member[19] | Party | |
---|---|---|---|
1983 | Cecil Parkinson | Conservative | |
1992 | James Clappison | Conservative | |
2015 | Oliver Dowden | Conservative |
Elections
[edit]Elections in the 2020s
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | Oliver Dowden | 21,451 | 44.7 | −20.2 | |
Labour | Josh Tapper | 13,459 | 28.0 | +6.9 | |
Reform UK | Darren Selkus | 6,584 | 13.7 | N/A | |
Liberal Democrats | Emma Matanle | 3,710 | 7.7 | −3.2 | |
Green | John Humphries | 2,267 | 4.7 | +1.6 | |
Independent | Ray Bolster | 536 | 1.1 | N/A | |
Majority | 7,992 | 16.7 | −24.1 | ||
Turnout | 48,007 | 65.3 | –6.4 | ||
Registered electors | 73,518 | ||||
Conservative hold | Swing | –13.6 |
Elections in the 2010s
[edit]2019 notional result[21] | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | Vote | % | |
Conservative | 34,083 | 64.9 | |
Labour | 11,103 | 21.1 | |
Liberal Democrats | 5,713 | 10.9 | |
Green | 1,614 | 3.1 | |
Turnout | 52,513 | 71.7 | |
Electorate | 73,256 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | Oliver Dowden | 32,651 | 62.5 | +1.4 | |
Labour | Holly Kal-Weiss | 11,338 | 21.7 | −7.0 | |
Liberal Democrats | Stephen Barrett | 6,561 | 12.6 | +7.3 | |
Green | John Humphries | 1,653 | 3.2 | +1.3 | |
Majority | 21,313 | 40.8 | +8.4 | ||
Turnout | 52,203 | 70.6 | −0.6 | ||
Conservative hold | Swing | +4.2 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | Oliver Dowden | 31,928 | 61.1 | +1.8 | |
Labour | Fiona Smith | 14,977 | 28.7 | +6.3 | |
Liberal Democrats | Joe Jordan | 2,794 | 5.3 | −0.2 | |
UKIP | David Hoy | 1,564 | 3.0 | −9.7 | |
Green | Sophie Summerhayes | 990 | 1.9 | New | |
Majority | 16,951 | 32.4 | −4.5 | ||
Turnout | 52,389 | 71.2 | +3.3 | ||
Conservative hold | Swing | −2.3 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | Oliver Dowden | 29,696 | 59.3 | +3.3 | |
Labour | Richard Butler[26] | 11,235 | 22.4 | +3.6 | |
UKIP | Frank Ward | 6,383 | 12.7 | +9.1 | |
Liberal Democrats | Sophie Bowler | 2,777 | 5.5 | −11.9 | |
Majority | 18,461 | 36.9 | −0.3 | ||
Turnout | 50,091 | 67.9 | +3.2 | ||
Conservative hold | Swing | -0.2 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | James Clappison | 26,476 | 56.0 | +2.8 | |
Labour | Sam Russell | 8,871 | 18.8 | −8.4 | |
Liberal Democrats | Anthony Rowlands | 8,210 | 17.4 | −1.0 | |
UKIP | David Rutter | 1,712 | 3.6 | New | |
BNP | Daniel Seabrook | 1,397 | 3.0 | New | |
Green | Arjuna Krishna-Das | 604 | 1.3 | New | |
Majority | 17,605 | 37.2 | +11.2 | ||
Turnout | 47,270 | 64.7 | +1.7 | ||
Conservative hold | Swing | +5.6 |
Elections in the 2000s
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | James Clappison | 22,665 | 53.2 | +5.4 | |
Labour | Kelly Tebb | 11,572 | 27.2 | −8.8 | |
Liberal Democrats | Jonathan Davies | 7,817 | 18.4 | +3.2 | |
Socialist Labour | James Dry | 518 | 1.2 | +0.2 | |
Majority | 11,093 | 26.0 | +14.2 | ||
Turnout | 42,572 | 63.0 | +2.7 | ||
Conservative hold | Swing | +7.1 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | James Clappison | 19,855 | 47.8 | +3.5 | |
Labour | Hilary Broderick | 14,953 | 36.0 | −2.2 | |
Liberal Democrats | Paul Thompson | 6,300 | 15.2 | +2.4 | |
Socialist Labour | James Dry | 397 | 1.0 | New | |
Majority | 4,902 | 11.8 | +5.7 | ||
Turnout | 41,505 | 60.3 | −13.7 | ||
Conservative hold | Swing | +2.9 |
Elections in the 1990s
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | James Clappison | 22,305 | 44.3 | −12.5 | |
Labour | Beth Kelly | 19,230 | 38.2 | +14.5 | |
Liberal Democrats | Ann Gray | 6,466 | 12.8 | −6.1 | |
Referendum | James Marlow | 1,703 | 3.4 | New | |
UKIP | Rodney Saunders | 453 | 0.9 | New | |
Natural Law | Nigel Kahn | 191 | 0.4 | New | |
Majority | 3,075 | 6.1 | −27.0 | ||
Turnout | 50,348 | 74.0 | −6.9 | ||
Conservative hold | Swing | -13.5 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | James Clappison | 32,133 | 56.8 | +0.2 | |
Labour | David Souter | 13,398 | 23.7 | +4.1 | |
Liberal Democrats | Zerbanoo Gifford | 10,681 | 18.9 | −4.9 | |
Natural Law | Diana Harding | 373 | 0.7 | New | |
Majority | 18,735 | 33.1 | +0.3 | ||
Turnout | 56,585 | 80.9 | +5.5 | ||
Conservative hold | Swing | −2.1 |
Elections in the 1980s
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | Cecil Parkinson | 31,278 | 56.6 | +3.4 | |
Liberal | Laurence Brass | 13,172 | 23.8 | −1.8 | |
Labour | Frank Ward | 10,835 | 19.6 | +0.4 | |
Majority | 18,106 | 32.8 | +5.2 | ||
Turnout | 55,285 | 75.4 | +1.7 | ||
Conservative hold | Swing | +2.6 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | Cecil Parkinson | 28,628 | 53.2 | ||
Liberal | Zerbanoo Gifford | 13,758 | 25.6 | ||
Labour | Ian Reed | 10,315 | 19.2 | ||
Independent Communist | Ronald Parkinson | 1,116 | 2.1 | ||
Majority | 14,870 | 27.6 | |||
Turnout | 53,817 | 73.7 | |||
Conservative win (new seat) |
See also
[edit]- List of parliamentary constituencies in Hertfordshire
- List of parliamentary constituencies in the East of England (region)
Notes
[edit]- ^ A county constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)
- ^ As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.
References
[edit]- ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – Eastern". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 26 June 2024.
- ^ "'Hertsmere', June 1983 up to May 1997". ElectionWeb Project. Cognitive Computing Limited. Archived from the original on 12 March 2016. Retrieved 11 March 2016.
- ^ "Electoral Calculus".
- ^ "UK Polling Report".
- ^ "How the population changed in Hertsmere: Census 2021". Census 2021. UK Office of National Statistics. 28 June 2022. Retrieved 2 November 2022.
- ^ "Hertsmere Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2015" (PDF). Hertsmere Borough Council. 2015. Retrieved 2 November 2022.
- ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1983". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 25 February 2019.
- ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1995". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 25 February 2019.
- ^ "2015 proposed map" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 October 2012. Retrieved 7 January 2013.
- ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 2007". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 25 February 2019.
- ^ "constituency map for proposed Hertsmere CC" (PDF). Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 9 November 2022.
- ^ "Revised proposals for new Parliamentary constituency boundaries in the Eastern region". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 9 November 2022.
- ^ "Boundary review 2023: Which seats will change?". commonslibrary.parliament.uk. Retrieved 1 November 2022.
- ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – Eastern | Boundary Commission for England". boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
- ^ Beattie, Jason (25 January 2016). "Late Cecil Parkinson was a hero to Tories - but a missing dad to girl he wouldn't love". Daily Mirror. Retrieved 1 November 2022.
- ^ "Obituary: Cecil Parkinson". BBC News. 25 January 2015. Retrieved 1 November 2022.
- ^ Ikonen, Charlotte (3 July 2014). "Hertsmere MP James Clappison to stand down at next election". Watford Observer.
- ^ Rambhai, Jyoti (8 May 2015). "Oliver Dowden retains Conservative seat in Hertsmere". Watford Observer.
- ^ Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "H" (part 3)
- ^ "Notice of Poll and Statement of Persons Nominated" (PDF). Hertsmere Borough Council. 7 June 2024. Retrieved 8 June 2024.
- ^ "Notional results for a UK general election on 12 December 2019". Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News. UK Parliament. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ "Hertsmere Parliamentary constituency". BBC News. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
- ^ "Declaration of Result of Poll" (PDF). Acting Returning Officer. 9 June 2017. Retrieved 13 June 2017.
- ^ "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
- ^ "Statement Of Persons Nominated And Notice Of Poll". Acting Returning Officer. 9 April 2015. Retrieved 14 April 2015.
- ^ "UK ELECTION RESULTS: Hertsmere 2015".
- ^ "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
- ^ "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
- ^ "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
- ^ "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
- ^ "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
- ^ "UK General Election results April 1992". Richard Kimber's Political Science Resources. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
- ^ "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
- ^ "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
External links
[edit]- Hertsmere UK Parliament constituency (boundaries April 1997 – April 2010) at MapIt UK
- Hertsmere UK Parliament constituency (boundaries April 2010 – May 2024) at MapIt UK
- Hertsmere UK Parliament constituency (boundaries from June 2024) at MapIt UK